Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Textile shares boom on their realty values

A lot of textile stocks including Raymond, Bombay Dyeing, Century Textiles & Industries, Provogue India, and Alok Industries seem to be rising not because of any change in their fundamental business, but based on the land parcels they own and want to develop — of course, Indiabulls’ extravagant purchase of NTC’s land parcel must have helped. Even so, the pace of the rise in some of the stocks is stunning.


In Raymond’s case, the whole excitement seems to be around a Business  Standard report that it will arrive at a new settlement with its Thane mill workers that will allow it to use the mill’s 126 acres for realty development. The mill is non-operational since December. Raymond had wanted to pay the Thane workers Rs1.6 billion while the mill workers are pressing for twice that amount. The Maharashtra government had also stepped in on the workers’ behalf threatening Raymond with nationalisation.

However, a ray of hope has now opened up for both the workers and Raymond in the form of the Thane Municipal Corporation, which is likely to offer it additional floor space index for the redevelopment of some slums on a portion of its property. Raymond will probably agree to pay the mill workers more than it was initially prepared to only out of the proceeds of the redevelopment — but this solution seems to be acceptable to the government, too, which was initially vehemently opposing Raymond’s realty plans. The meeting to discuss this is to be held tomorrow — expect more action around the stock. Around the same time last year, Raymond had announced its realty plans but it had talked of 15-20 acres of surplus land, which was not a part of its factory. However, the stock languished between Rs170 and Rs250 until 5th August, when it started its phenomenal up-move. Since then, the stock has risen from Rs240 to almost Rs400. On 13th August, HDFC Mutual Fund bought 997,596 shares of Raymond at Rs364.

Bombay Dyeing shares started rising a little before Raymond. From 2nd August, the shares have risen from around Rs550 to almost Rs700 now.Chairman Nusli Wadia had said at its AGM last week that the company was focusing harder on its real-estate business and was looking at this business to clear off it Rs18 billion debt. The company’s real-estate business was Rs5.6 billion in FY10, twice as much as in FY09. Bombay Dyeing has a 67-acre land bank in Mumbai. Its textile business has been incurring losses for quite some time now — late June, RIL was said to have purchased its 165,000tpa polyester unit for Rs3 billion. This is not confirmed by the company.

Bombay Dyeing is also believed to have sold property to Axis Bank for  Rs7.8 billion in May — again not confirmed by the company. BD has apparently relocated its textile mills to Pune and is planning two real estate projects on the freed land in central Mumbai. The general belief is that it has the potential to develop almost 8 million sq ft of land in central Mumbai.Century Textiles is already in the process of building two commercial buildings on its 16 hectares in Worli in Mumbai.


Alok Industries is planning to sell its real estate in Mumbai to cut its debt and apparently expects around Rs7 billion (expectations may have risen after the recent Indiabulls deal where it bought just 8.3 acres of land from National Textile Corporation in Worli for a whopping Rs15 billion). The shares of Century Textiles have moved up from almost Rs450 to Rs500 while Alok Industries is steady at Rs20. Provogue, which plans to develop real estate in Tier-II cities, has risen from Rs58 to Rs67. Among other stocks with embedded real estate value is DCM. The Punjab and Haryana High Court recently cleared 250 acres of land for sale from its closed unit.s

Cairn deal

Analysts have taken a negative view of the Vedanta takeover of Cairn India - both for Cairn and Sesa Goa. For Cairn the upside potential is limited. The open offer is too close to the market price and the business prospects are fully reflected in the stock price. The impact on Sesa Goa is negative as well.

Anil Agarwal, chairman, Vedanta Resources, is using the cash flow of Sesa Goa to fund the open offer which is not rewarding to Sesa shareholders. It is a typical empire-building move - good for the dominant shareholder but not necessarily for minority shareholders. Most analysts are urging investors to tender in their shares in the open offer. A key question that remains unanswered by most sector and industry experts -- why is Cairn PLC cashing out so early in the cash flow cycle? It has just started reaping the benefits of its investments in India.

Let's look at the deal first. The Vedanta Group will pick up 51% stake in Cairn India from Cairn Energy at Rs405/share. This includes Rs50/share (i.e., $1bn) as non-compete fee (Cairn Energy will not compete in India, Bhutan, Sri Lanka and Pakistan or poach senior management for three years).

Sesa Goa in which Vedanta has a 57% stake, will make a 20% open offer (possibly in October) to Cairn India's minority shareholders at Rs355/share. If the open offer is not fully subscribed, Sesa will purchase shares from Vedanta PLC to reach the 20% mark. In any case, Vedanta could tender shares in the offer to reduce its stake to 40%. The end result will be Vedanta PLC holding 31%-40% and Sesa Goa holding 20% in Cairn. Sesa will fork out $3 billion from its cash resources to fund the open offer, while Vedanta will look for debt.

Depending on how successful the offer is, Cairn Energy's stake will fall to a minimum of 40% but it has an option to raise this by 10% with two put-call options exercisable in July 2012 and July 2013 at Rs405/share. The Vedanta Group will shell out $8.5 billion-$11 billion by July 2013. Cairn UK holds 62% stake in Cairn India. Other major shareholders are Petronas at 15% (will be key in the success of the open offer) and LIC at 2.6%. Petronas invested $1.2 billion in Cairn - its investment value is now $1.8 billion.

According to analysts, the deal pegs Cairn India's enterprise value at around $16.5 billion and this implies a valuation of around $15/BOE (barrel of oil equivalent). The market has reacted mostly negatively about Sesa's use of its cash flow to fund the open offer. This is what Kotak told its institutional investors today: "Sesa's proposed acquisition of a 20% stake in Cairn India (CAIR) is value destructive. Not only has Sesa overpaid for CAIR, the utilisation of excess cash to fund group expansion plan/acquisition raises concern on shareholder friendliness. We compute value destruction of Rs35-58/share for Sesa Goa resulting from over-valuation of CAIR. A statement by the Sesa management about lack of growth opportunities to utilise excess cash does little to inspire confidence in the core business."

Possible regulatory issues:
* The difference in the price for the larger shareholders and minority shareholders
* The government may come in heavily since the deal involves transfer of natural assets from one entity to another
* It is possible that the government may use this as an opportunity to settle royalty and cess issues for the Rajasthan block before giving a regulatory okay for the stake sale.


Possible positives:
* Vedanta has revealed that there is an additional in-place resource potential of 7 billion BOE in the block in addition to the 6.5 billion BOE already disclosed by Cairn. This could propel oil production to 250-300kbpd - but to be honest, this is some way off
* Success in its eight other exploration assets - again, not a sure bet
* Open offer price revised to Rs405 for regulatory reasons. However, this also seems unlikely because the SEBI Takeover Code allows up to a 25% premium in non-compete fees without affecting the open offer price.

Educomp FY10 consolidated net jumps twofold to Rs 275 cr

Educomp Solutions today said its consolidated net profit jumped over twofold to Rs 275.8 crore for the year ended March 31, 2010, over the same period last year.


Total income rose to Rs 1,165 crore in the same period ended March 2010, from Rs 651.8 crore in the same period previous fiscal, Educomp Solutions said in a filing to the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).

The total dividend declared for the year is Rs 2.75 per share (on the face value of Rs 2 each).

On the standalone basis, the company has posted a net profit of Rs 221 crore for the year ended March 31, from Rs 131 crore in the same period previous year.


Shares of Educomp Solutions today closed at Rs 561.95 per piece on the BSE, down 2.89 per cent from the previous close.

Monday, August 16, 2010

Anu's Laboratories net profit rises 18.52% in the June 2010 quarter

Net profit of Anu's Laboratories rose 18.52% to Rs 5.12 crore in the quarter ended June 2010 as against Rs 4.32 crore during the previousquarter ended June 2009. Sales rose 47.18% to Rs 66.04 crore in the quarter ended June 2010 as against Rs 44.87 crore during the previous quarter ended June 2009.
ParticularsQuarter Ended
 Jun. 2010Jun. 2009% Var.
Sales66.0444.8747
OPM %15.0720.99-28
PBDT7.537.402
PBT6.906.95-1
NP5.124.3219

Friday, August 13, 2010

Jagatjit Ind.- Feud Settled??

There is interest building up in this stock due to rumours that the family feud between Anand Jaiswal and Jagatjit Jaiswal is close to being settled. In March 2009, the Company Law Board (CLB) had ruled that there was no merit in challenging the allotment of shares with differential voting rights (DVRs) as it was legally permissible. Anand and Jagatjit had moved the CLB against the company decision in 2004 on preferential allotment of shares with DVRs, giving Karamjit 64% voting rights on his 32% stake in the company. At that time itself, the two brothers had apparently agreed to the CLB-proposed settlement where Karamjit would buy out Anand and Jagatjit's 12% stake in the company for roughly Rs730 million.


However, according to the latest shareholding pattern, 2.15 million shares held by Karamjit Jaiswal are shown under the pledged or otherwise encumbered account and placed in an escrow account. In addition to this, there is also talk of a takeover bid from UB. Jagatjit owns Aristocrat Liquor, Binnie's Malt and dairy products, and also makes glass containers.