Mercator Line Ltd (MLL) reported considerable improvement in operating performance in Q1FY11 with dry bulk division performing reasonably well. The company has also ramped up its coal business (mining as well as trading) which would increasingly contribute to the topline for the company.
Freight rates are expected to be volatile over the next one year which could lead to fluctuations in the operating performance of the company going ahead. But MLL is well placed to ride the volatility of shipping business on account of inherent advantages such as diversified revenue stream, presence across segments, long term charter contracts, comfortable debt equity ratio and strong MLL reported 24.3% q-o-q rise in revenue at Rs 599.3 crores.
The rise in topline was led by a surge in revenue from coal trading and coal mining which constituted 38.2% i.e. Rs 599.3 crores of the total revenue for the quarter. Singapore subsidiary which handles dry bulk business of the company reported revenue of Rs 179.4 crores with improvement in operating days to 1251 days and TCE to $ 30001 per day. EBITDA margin improved to 33.1% from 29.0% in the immediately preceding quarter.
The company posted net profit of Rs 61.7 crores in Q1FY11 which was higher than the profit made by the company in entire FY10.
MLL is trading at a significant discount to its global peers and almost at 0.5 x times its FY10 book value which provides an appropriate entry point for long-term investors. We recommend a BUY from this point and the stock has potential to go 20-30% short-medium term
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ReplyDeleteA study carried-out by a reliable global research firm has confirmed that global economy has bottomed out and the recovery has commenced.
Baltic Dry Index is considered as the most reliable leading indicator of global economic activity. This index indirectly measures global supply and demand for the commodities shipped aboard dry bulk carriers, such as building materials, coal, metallic ores, and grains. Because dry bulk primarily consists of materials that function as raw material inputs to the production of intermediate or finished goods, such as concrete, electricity, steel, and food, the index is also seen as an efficient economic indicator of future economic growth and production. This has bottomed out at 1700 levels and is presently at 2750.
The next global economic growth cycle which has just commenced and may run a 7-8 year cycle, has shifted its Center of Gravity. The run-up of next three decades will be primarily driven by China, India & Brazil. The shifting of investment capital into these regions will surely take place, but after lot of initial resistance. This is because investors are seeing the wrong direction and reading wrong indicators.
Auto sales in Asian region is surging. Confidence level of Entrepreneurs in Asia especially India & China are surging. Consumption is booming. Prosperity levels are on the rise. Employment rate is rising.
If so, what are the implications? The stock markets are yet to pick up the signal. But it is just a matter of time. Along with rising equity markets, commodities will move up. Crude prices and coal prices will soon commence their rally. Stock markets will pick up. But the point being conveyed is that one should not keep an eye on Dow and Nasdaq. Yes, they will rally but there isn't enough headroom. Sensex, Bovespa, Hang Seng etc will lead the rally and hit new highs. The old order will change gradually. It is time world starts tracking monsoons in India, commodity exports from Brazil, Russia, IIP numbers of China etc. So, when Dow touches 11000 Sensex will touch 22000.
What are the stocks to look for. Here are our six top picks:-
1. Reliance Industries
2. Larsen & Toubro
3. Mercator Lines
4. SBI
5. Pantaloon Retail
6. Mahindra & Maindra
An investment of Rs one lakh invested in each of the stock will return Rs 12 lakh in 12-14 months time. The midcap stock Mercator lines is added in the portfolio to spruce up the return ratio.
Here are the reasons why we have picked the stocks. The common reasons running through all these stocks are their able management. All these companies are well-diversified and yet with clear visibility of steady cash flows. All of them are in sectors which pose heavy entry barriers and there are difficulties in starting or replicating similar businesses. All of them reflect India growth story and will be befitted directly or indirectly through this. All the large cap stocks will give 50% return in a year. Mercator Lines will reward investor very handsomely. Our immediate target is Rs 75/ - One can expect a price of Rs 120/- in one year period and Rs 240/- in two years. The reasons are good cash levels, high institutional holding and diversifications which are on the verge of pumping additional cash into the company, exposure to commodity space - i.e coal & oil
Incidentally all of them are F&O stocks.
Three cheers to India and its investors!